Thiago da Costa

Economic shocks reshape labor markets, yet their political consequences remain underexplored. This paper examines how economic disruptions influence political entry, candidate composition, and electoral outcomes in legislative elections. We extend Caselli and Morelli (2004) model to accommodate heterogeneous shock effects across the ability distribution, enabling analysis of differential impacts on political entry and candidate quality. Under a broad class of equilibria, negative wage shocks increase both candidate numbers and the high-ability share by eroding low-ability candidates' comparative advantage, reshaping entry incentives to favor higher-ability individuals. Empirically, we exploit Brazil's exposure to the China Shock to test these predictions. Using a shift-share design, we find municipalities exposed to import competition experienced sustained increases in political entry, electoral competition, and more educated candidates—driven by deteriorating labor market opportunities consistent with supply-side responses. In contrast, the export boom had minimal effects, highlighting asymmetric trade shock impacts. We further document shifts in candidate demographics and ideology, with import shocks reducing left-wing electoral success. Our findings show economic dislocation shapes political representation by altering the candidate pool, independent of voter demand responses.

Concerns about negative impacts of student phone use have led to calls around the world for tighter restrictions on phones in schools. This paper evaluates the impact of a 2023 policy that banned non-pedagogical uses of phones within schools in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. To isolate the causal effects of the policy, we contrast middle schools that already had strict rules on phone use prior to the policy (“control schools”) to similar schools that did not have strict rules (“treatment schools”), before and after the ban. While restrictions were imperfectly implemented both before and after the ban, we show that in-school phone use fell substantially in treatment schools relative to control. We then show that test-scores, which were trending similarly in the two groups prior to the ban, improved significantly in treatment schools relative to control. Extrapolating from these point estimates would imply a total increase in test scores due to the ban of about 0.2 standard deviations.

This paper develops a new statistical method to measure intersectional inequalities even in the absence of survey instruments specifically designed for this goal. The intersectional inequality index (Triple I) captures differences in how a binary outcome is partitioned across social groups relative to fair (lottery-based) allocations. Unlike alternative indicators, Triple I treats every group symmetrically regardless of group size; as such, it does not minimize inequalities affecting minority groups. It can be decomposed to study inequality sources, in particular when it comes to identifying the most important inequality drivers. We compute the index to study intersectional inequalities in employment within the United States, showcasing how Triple I reveals insights hidden by other metrics.

This report analyzes federal healthcare expenditures on treating firearm injury victims in Brazil. In 2024, 15,800 hospitalizations for firearm injuries consumed R$42.3 million in federal health resources. Over the past decade (2015-2024), total federal spending on these hospitalizations reached approximately half a billion reais (R$556 million), averaging R$56.6 million per year. The report documents persistent patterns of victimization, with 89% of patients being men, 82% being Black individuals, and 52% being young people (15-29 years). Aggression remains the primary cause of firearm-related hospitalizations (77.3%), with significant regional disparities—the Northeast accounting for 42% of hospitalizations in 2024. The analysis reveals that treating firearm injuries is costly: the average hospitalization cost is 2.6 times higher than federal per capita health spending, and hospitalizations due to armed assault cost approximately 80% more than those for other types of assault. These findings underscore armed violence as a major public health issue requiring integrated policy responses from both health and security sectors to strengthen control over firearms circulation.